An evolutionary explanation of the value premium puzzle

As early as 1934 Graham and Dodd conjectured that excess returns from value investment originate from a tendency of stock prices to converge towards a fundamental value. This paper confirms their insights within the evolutionary finance model of Evstigneev et al. (Econ Theory 27:449–468, (Evstigneev et al. 2006)). Our empirical results show the predictive power of the evolutionary benchmark valuation for the relative market capitalization and its dynamics in the sample of firms listed in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index in 1981–2009.     

Rahmenbedingungen, Charakteristika und Konsequenzen freiwilliger Unternehmenspublizit?t – State of the Art und neue Perspektiven der empirischen Forschung

Die freiwillige Unternehmenspublizit?t dient vor allem der Information der Investoren zum Abbau von Informationsasymmetrien und einer Minderung von Prinzipal-Agent-Konflikten. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysiert der vorliegende Beitrag Befunde zu den mit einer Ver?ffentlichung einhergehenden Kapitalmarktkonsequenzen. Dabei werden gezielt bisherige Erkenntnisse für den deutschen Kapitalmarkt berücksichtigt. Zur Systematisierung der Ergebnisse werden die Studien anhand eines aus drei Komponenten (Rahmenbedingungen, Charakteristika und Konsequenzen) bestehenden konzeptionellen Bezugsrahmens geordnet. Es zeigt sich, dass internationale Studien meist zwei oder sogar drei Komponenten der freiwilligen Publizit?t gleichzeitig berücksichtigen und so umfassendere Aussagen treffen k?nnen, w?hrend für den deutschen Kontext Nachholbedarf zu konstatieren ist. Darüber hinaus werden weitere Forschungsfelder aufgezeigt, die bis dato auch international wenig Beachtung gefunden haben, obgleich sie zunehmend an Relevanz gewinnen.     

Mean-variance hedging for continuous processes: New proofs and examples

Let be a special semimartingale of the form and denote by the mean-variance tradeoff process of . Let be the space of predictable processes for which the stochastic integral is a square-integrable semimartingale. For a given constant and a given square-integrable random variable , the mean-variance optimal hedging strategy by definition minimizes the distance in between and the space . In financial terms, provides an approximation of the contingent claim by means of a self-financing trading strategy with minimal global risk. Assuming that is bounded and continuous, we first give a simple new proof of the closedness of in and of the existence of the F?llmer-Schweizer decomposition. If moreover is continuous and satisfies an additional condition, we can describe the mean-variance optimal strategy in feedback form, and we provide several examples where it can be computed explicitly. The additional condition states that the minimal and the variance-optimal martingale measures for should coincide. We provide examples where this assumption is satisfied, but we also show that it will typically fail if is not deterministic and includes exogenous randomness which is not induced by .     

The Dawn of the AI Robots: Towards a New Framework of AI Robot Accountability

Journal of Business Ethics - Business, management, and business ethics literature pay little attention to the topic of AI robots. The broad spectrum of potential ethical issues pertains to using...     

Evolutionary stable stock markets

Summary. This paper shows that a stock market is evolutionary stable if and only if stocks are evaluated by expected relative dividends. Any other market can be invaded in the sense that there is a portfolio rule that, when introduced on the market with arbitrarily small initial wealth, increases its market share at the incumbents expense. This mutant portfolio rule changes the asset valuation in the course of time. The stochastic wealth dynamics in our evolutionary stock market model is formulated as a random dynamical system. Applying this theory, necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the evolutionary stability of portfolio rules when relative dividend payoffs follow a stationary Markov process. These local stability conditions lead to a unique evolutionary stable portfolio rule according to which assets are evaluated by expected relative dividends (with respect to the objective probabilities).Received: 7 October 2003, Revised: 18 January 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: G11, D52, D81. Correspondence to: Klaus Reiner Schenk-HoppéWe are grateful to Jarrod Wilcox and William Ziemba for valuable comments. Financial support by the national center of competence in research Financial Valuation and Risk Management is gratefully acknowledged. The national centers in research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation on behalf of the federal authorities.     

Higher wages in exporting firms: self-selection, export effect, or both? First evidence from linked employer-employee data

While it is a stylized fact that exporting firms pay higher wages than non-exporting firms, the direction of the link between exporting and wages is less clear. Using a rich set of German linked employer-employee panel data we follow over time plants that start to export. We show that the exporter wage premium does already exist in the years before firms start to export, and that it does not increase in the following years. Higher wages in exporting firms are thus due to self-selection of more productive, better paying firms into export markets; they are not caused by export activities.     

Financial market equilibria with cumulative prospect theory

The paper first shows that financial market equilibria need not to exist if agents possess cumulative prospect theory preferences with piecewise-power value functions. This is due to the boundary behavior of the cumulative prospect theory value function, which might cause an infinite short-selling problem. But even when a non-negativity constraint on final wealth is added, non-existence can occur due to the non-convexity of CPT preferences, which might cause discontinuities in the agents’ demand functions. This latter observation also implies that concavification arguments which has been used in portfolio allocation problems with CPT preferences do not apply to our general equilibrium setting with finite many agents. Existence of equilibria is established when non-negativity constraints on final wealth are imposed and there is a continuum of agents in the market. However, if the original prospect theory is used instead of cumulative prospect theory, then other discontinuity problems can cause non-existence of market equilibria even in this case.     

Natural resource extraction and civil conflict

Based on evidence linking natural resources to civil conflict, this paper studies two armed groups fighting to control a resource and possibly a second prize. Labor is used in the agricultural, resource extraction and conflict sectors, and the groups also buy a capital input to conflict subject to the constraint that capital spending cannot exceed resource earnings. I find that exogenous shocks can have different effects on conflict intensity depending on whether the credit constraint binds. In particular, international policies to ban natural resource exports from conflict zones (e.g. ‘blood diamonds’), raise agricultural productivity or limit the import of weapons will limit conflict intensity if the credit constraint binds. However, if the credit constraint does not bind, then the first two policies promote conflict, and so could even the third policy. The results therefore suggest some caution in international policymaking.     

Uncertainty avoidance,risk tolerance and corporate takeover decisions

In this paper, we examine the role of national culture in corporate takeover decisions, by arguing that managerial risk tolerance (a combination of risk aversion and risk perception), at the national level, is a cultural trait and affects the expected net synergies CEOs require. We propose a theoretical framework that links CEO risk tolerance to the expected net synergies. We empirically show that CEOs of firms located in countries with lower levels of risk tolerance, measured by Hofstede’s (1980, 2001) uncertainty avoidance score, require higher premiums on takeovers, and show that uncertainty avoidance plays a greater role in relatively large takeovers. Additional testing reveals that CEOs from high uncertainty avoiding nations engage less in cross-border/cross-industry takeovers, suggesting that uncertainty avoidance captures more the CEO’s risk perception than his/her risk aversion.     

Investing in natural capital as management strategy in fisheries: The case of the Baltic Sea cod fishery

Many of today's fish stocks are officially managed following the precautionary approach. Yet, different political objectives and uncertainties among fishermen about their economic future make its implementation difficult. Over 75% of all commercially valuable stocks are exploited, overused, or collapsed and in a state of recovery [FAO, 2004. The state of the world fisheries and aquaculture. FAO, Rome. Managing fish stocks with an ecosystem-based approach is likely to stop the divestment of natural capital by combining sustainable use strategies with the preservation of marine ecosystems. Using the example of the Baltic Sea cod fishery, we show that a recovery program is economically and ecologically viable and reduces negative externalities. While policy makers must assist fishermen during the early years of the program, fishermen will experience greater landings and profits in subsequent years.